Canada's Housing Bubble

Jan 11, 2009 Paul Vieira Financial Post

As of November, existing home sales are up 73% on a year-over-year basis, while prices have climbed nearly 20%.

Ottawa -- The Bank of Canada may shed further light on whether the country is in the midst of a housing bubble when one of the governor's advisors talks about the real estate sector in a speech Monday afternoon in Edmonton.

The speech is entitled, Canada's Housing Sector in Recession and Recovery, and will be closely watched for clues of growing concern among Bank of Canada policy makers on the red-hot recovery in Canadian real estate. In recent weeks, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has warned of growing levels of household debt, perhaps stoked by record low borrowing costs that's driving people to the real estate market.

As of November, existing home sales are up 73% on a year-over-year basis, while prices have climbed nearly 20%.

"While the central bank will always dance around the bubble topic, watch for any hints of discomfort on the speed of the housing recovery," said economists at BMO Capita Markets in a note to clients.

The speech is to be delivered by David Wolf, an advisor to Mr. Carney. He's a last-minute replacement for deputy governor Timothy Lane, who cannot appear due to an unforeseen private matter, the central bank said.

The speech coincides with data released Monday morning that indicated Canadian housing starts rose 5.9% in December, their third consecutive monthly gain. The number of starts in December beat analyst expectations for between 160,000 and 165,000 units.

"Low mortgage interest rates and improving consumer confidence are providing significant support for housing demand, leading to rising home sales and falling inventories of unsold houses," David Onyett-Jeffries, an economist with Royal Bank of Canada, said in a note to clients.

"This in turn is pushing builders to increase the pace of new homes coming onto the market and spurring on growth in residential investment."